Tropical update: High flood risk for central Caribbean

Hurricane Hunters determined that the broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean had a better-defined center of circulation and, due to its proximity to land, the National Hurricane Center classified it as Potential Tropical Cyclone 22. There is a chance for this system to become a named system on Friday as it comes closer to the central Caribbean islands.

The storm does not have much time to become a tropical storm, as it will likely merge with a trough in the mid-levels of the atmosphere on Sunday as it passes around the southern Bahamas. Soon, the system will become an extratropical storm on Sunday.

The system on Friday morning remains disorganized as it slowly moves to the northeast at about 10 mph. It holds maximum sustained winds of 30 mph, so it is just below tropical storm status. Regardless of whether the system officially received a name or not, the outcome will be the same - torrential rains for Jamaica, southern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Turk and Caicos, and the southern region of the Bahamas.

As we have discussed all week, every morning, the periods of heavy rains have moved onto Jamaica, southern Cuba, and Haiti overnight into Friday morning. The most active day for this region will be today into Saturday as the system comes closer, increasing the heavy rain activity which will likely develop floods and could also form mudslides and landslides over the high terrains. The Dominican Republic will also notice a sharp increase in rain showers later Friday and Saturday. Periods of heavy rains will be affecting the central region of the Caribbean, including the southern Bahamas through Monday morning.

Rainfall across the mentioned areas could exceed 16 inches. Overall, between 5 to 10 inches of rain are possible. Minor flooding due to storm surge across the southeastern Bahamas and Turk and Caicos (these islands are flatter in nature). High surf will affect the central Caribbean along with a high risk for rip currents. Please remain out of the water, this will not be a weekend for marine activities.

We will be monitoring the evolution of this system and will continue to provide you with updates.

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