Tropical update: Two areas, same outcome: heavy rains

We continue to monitor two areas of possible storm formation this week. One of these is already affecting parts of the East Coast of the U.S. The other will impact the Caribbean. Let’s discuss it!

The same low-pressure system traveling over the Gulf of Mexico this week and bringing heavy rains for parts of the Gulf states now has the bulk of its energy located just east of Florida. We have been mentioning this low all week and have highlighted the chance for storm formation late this week. It is not likely for this system to develop into a full-fledged system, but its heavy rains and high surf are like those of a tropical system. Just check out the images coming from parts of South Florida where some areas have already experienced flooding after a very active night of constant downpours.

These showers and storms continue on Wednesday. The forecast calls for the bullseye of the heavy rains to fall over Broward County, likely in Fort Lauderdale, but parts of Palm Beach County and southern Miami-Dade County could also receive over 10 inches of rain. Today will not be a day to venture out on the streets as showers will be moving on and off and when they fall, they will be falling hard!

This system will move parallel to the southeast coast. The seas will be rough and dangerous all weekend from the southeast coast through parts of the mid-Atlantic coast. Beach erosion could also be a problem in the same areas. The silver lining is that much cooler and drier air will be pulled southward over Florida, just in time for the weekend.

On Monday we mentioned the possibility of this system to hold off a bit longer over the southwestern Caribbean. Wednesday, this scenario is becoming more probable. Its stall is also causing a slight decrease in the chance of this system getting a name, as the delay would hinder the favorable conditions over the weekend and after for this system to develop as the wind shear increases and a front pushes the system away vanishing its chances to develop.

But what is important about this area of disorganized thunderstorms is that it won’t matter much if it gets named or not. Heavy rains have been affecting Honduras, Belize, and Nicaragua. As this system starts to slowly shift this week, heavier rains will affect the central Caribbean islands. Jamaica, southern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic (in this order) will likely experience an increasing risk of heavy rains starting Wednesday evening through Saturday. The heaviest period for this set of islands will be on Friday.

We are closely monitoring the heavy rains over South Florida and the Caribbean and will continue to bring you prompt updates.

**You can find this same information in Spanish (also written by our bilingual meteorologists) in our app, just by setting the language to Spanish in the app settings.