Flood concerns rise for southern Florida

Dangerous heavy rainfall will settle in across southern Florida, with as much as a moderate risk – a level three out of four – being issued for excessive rain. Widespread totals of 3 to 8 inches are possible through early Thursday but totals to 10 inches cannot be ruled out. Florida is used to rainy weather, but too much all at once will cause flooding concerns.

A surface low pressure parked in the northern Gulf of Mexico is the main mechanism sending multiple waves of heavy rainfall across the not-so-sunny Sunshine State. A stationary front is forecast to set up across South Florida, keeping the heaviest rainfall along I-95 from Titusville to the Southeast Florida Coast, including Miami, and most of the Keys.

Eventually, another low pressure will spin up at the end of this front late tonight and early Thursday, sloshing more rainfall back onshore before it moves up the East Coast this weekend. Read the tropical outlook for more information on this potentially tropical low.

If your local streets become water-covered during an afternoon rain burst in a thunderstorm, you can expect significant flooding from the consistent rain through Thursday morning. Commuter concerns for both Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, are present and close attention will need to be paid to find the safest plan for going about your days.

About five inches of rainfall are possible from the Upper Keys to Homestead and Miami, with as much as 8 inches or higher possible from Homestead to Key Largo through early Thursday. The exact locations of these higher rain totals will depend on where exactly the new low sets up overnight tonight.

Rain rates up to 3 inches per hour are possible, with common rates of 1-2 inches per hour stretching as far north as the east-central Florida coast.

Not to be outdone, the early Thursday rainfall will coincide with high tide. Coastal areas that usually see coastal flooding due to high tide could see even more standing water due to the heavy rainfall. Beach erosion and high surf are just the cherry on top for the southern Florida impacts.

Be sure to have your app notifications switched on and at least three ways to receive a weather warning. This won’t be a quick event, so pay close attention to your local forecast and WeatherRadar to know where the rainfall is setting up at any time.